ORDER OF THE GOVERNMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN

of December 31, 2025 No. 1185

About approval of the Concept of investment policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan till 2030

The government of the Republic of Kazakhstan DECIDES:

1. Approve the enclosed Concept of investment policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan till 2030 (further – the Concept).

2. To the central and local executive bodies, state bodies, directly subordinate and accountable to the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan (under approval), and also to other organizations (under approval), responsible for execution of the Concept:

1) to provide timely implementation of actions and achievement of the indicators provided by the Action plan on implementation of the Concept;

2) two times a year, no later than January 15 and on July 15, following reporting half-year to provide information on course of execution of actions of the Concept in the Ministry of national economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

3. No later than June 15 to provide to the ministry of national economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan following the results of year in the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan summary information on the course of implementation of the Concept.

4. Declare invalid the order of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan of October 18, 2024 No. 868 "About approval of the Concept of investment policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan till 2029".

5. To impose control of execution of this resolution on the Ministry of national economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

6. This resolution becomes effective from the date of its signing.

Approved by the Order of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan of December 31, 2025 No. 1185

The concept of investment policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan till 2030

Section 1. Passport (key parameters)

Section 2. Analysis of the current situation

In the conditions of new global reality Kazakhstan enters the next stage of transformation of investment policy. Deep technological and geoeconomic shifts, forming of new architecture of the international trade and economic relations, and also the amplifying competition for investment resources, require updating of strategic approach of the state to attraction and effective use of investments.

According to the National development plan (further – the NPR) in 2029 the volume of investment into fixed capital (further – IOK) shall reach 23% to gross domestic product (further – GDP). Taking into account task on doubling of GDP the target indicator on IOK will grow with 26, 2 trillion tenge in 2025 to 58, 4 trillion tenge in 2029. At the same time in the NPR the emphasis is placed on attraction of external investments.

From 1993 on the first half of the year 2025 the country attracted 469, 0 billion US dollars of direct foreign investments (further – PII) in gross calculation. Obligations on direct foreign investments as of July 1 of the current year reached 169, 6 billion US dollars. In total external obligations of Kazakhstan, including direct, portfolio, derivative and other, for July 1, 2025 reached 259, 3 billion US dollars, from them 200,4 of one billion or 77,3 of % is the share of 10 largest countries investors (The Netherlands, the USA, the Russian Federation, Great Britain, China, France, the UAE, the Bermudas, Japan and Switzerland). In the three of leading industries on attraction of PII – the mining industry and development of pits (71%), processing industry (% 7,2), financial and insurance activity (% 6,8).

In spite of the fact that extensive inventories of hydrocarbons and minerals remain the basis of the economy of Kazakhstan, the Government continues to make efforts for diversification of economy. Active dialogue with all investors via formal channels, such as Council of foreign investors in case of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan is supported and Council for investment attraction under the leadership of the First deputy Premier-Ministra of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

In 2025 the international rating agencies confirmed stability and improvement of credit profile of Kazakhstan: S&P Global Ratings raised the forecast for rating "Stable" on BBB-/A-3 with the forecast "Positive", Fitch kept rating at the level of "BBB" with the "Stable" forecast, and Moody "s confirmed the long-term rating of Baa1 with the "Stable" forecast." S is noted by Moody rating agency that consolidation of such estimates from the international rating agencies strengthens investor confidence, strengthens macroeconomic stability of the country and promotes reduction in cost of attraction of the capital.

At the current stage major factors of acceleration of economic growth is expansion of the volumes of investment into fixed capital and attraction of direct foreign investments. In this regard the Government realizes the weighed structural policy and increases support of the real sector.

Investments are directed to creation of new productions, development of processing industry and forming of workplaces with high performance of work. Special attention is paid to industries with the high export potential capable to provide the long-term economic growth and stability.

Priorities of industry development find reflection in specific investment projects which implementation already began or is planned for the near future.

2.1. Global tendencies of world flows of direct foreign investments

In 2024 the global amount of direct foreign investments reached about 1, 4 trillion dollars that for 11% exceeds indicator of 2023. However, if to exclude the financial flows passing through the European transit economies, the real amount of PII decreased by 8%.

In regional section PII flows to developing countries were reduced by 2%, having constituted 854 billion US dollars. The main decrease happened in the developing countries of Asia where the volume of investment decreased by 7%, in particular, PII in China decreased by 29% whereas in the countries of Association of South-East Asian Nations insignificant growth by 2% was observed.

In Central Asia amounts of PII decreased by 39%, having reached 4 billion US dollars (net inflow), at the same time the number of new (Greenfield) projects decreased by 11% – from 158 to 140 units.

According to McKinsey for the last five years the structure of global PII changed considerably: if earlier main share was constituted by capital investments in services and smokestack industry, then since 2022 shift for benefit of capital-intensive technological industries is observed.

As a result the global investment capital covers requirements of the developing economies insufficiently. In reports of UNCTAD, World Investment Conference it is noted that about 70% of global PII concentrate on difficult productions and high-profit services. At the same time investments into the resource-oriented industries and low-profit production / basic services remain at the level of 3% and 11%, respectively.

At the same time PII in developed countries increased by 43%, having reached 522 billion US dollars. However, if not to consider the European konduitny economies, the volumes of investment decreased by 15%. In Europe in general decrease in PII by 45% – to 104 billion US dollars is fixed.

The main trends in worldwide investment policy:

1. The continuing decrease in direct foreign investments. Decrease in PII reflects the remaining instability of world economy: transit financial flows through the European economies partially hide the real fall of investments into production and long-term projects caused by geopolitics, high interest rates and delay of growth.

The forecast for 2025 depends on economic and political conditions – in general moderate growth is possible, but it will be uneven on regions.

Macroeconomic indicators, technological shifts, trade and industrial policy, and also behavior of large investors – private equity and sovereign funds will remain key drivers. Rate reduction will theoretically facilitate crediting and will support cross-border projects, however the expected growth M&A hardly completely compensates weakness of direct long-term investments.

2. Technological promotions and structural changes in industries will continue to exert impact on PII. Technological sectors – artificial intelligence, cloudy infrastructure and cyber security – become the key directions of inflow of PII as the companies invest in digital transformation and increase in stability of transactions worldwide.

Projects on construction of the data-centers and localization of production of semiconductors create the large capital-intensive initiatives attracting both direct investments, and transactions M&A that promotes concentration of competences and creation of supply chains in new regions.

In 2024 the sector of information and communication services attracted 96 billion US dollars through transactions of merges and absorption (growth by 43% in comparison with 68 billion US dollars the previous year), and considerable amounts were also sent to electronics and the electrotechnical equipment (21 billion US dollars) and mechanical engineering (20 billion US dollars). It reflects the growing demand for computing capacities, semiconductor components and automation of production – trends which in the medium term will support capital inflow to the technological and accompanying industries.

3. Global trade policy, rates and industrial policy will continue to play key role in the direction of PII flows. Developing countries are vulnerable in the face of volatility of the financial markets, and especially strongly financial turbulence mentions economies of Asia – the region which is most integrated into global chains of value added.

The capital is attracted by the countries with potential production, infrastructure and access to the markets necessary for realization of new trade preferences and decrease in risks in supply chains. It is expected that these tendencies will also promote growth of regional flows of PII.

4. Tendency to strengthening of regulation of PII. Need of protection of national interests against the background of geopolitical and economic uncertainty led to toughening of regulation of PII as in developed, and developing countries. For example, India toughened rules for foreign investments to defense and space sectors, requiring preliminary government approval. Vietnam implemented the new Law "About Investments" strengthening control of foreign investments in the sectors important for homeland security, such as telecommunication and high technologies. The countries of the European Union (further – the EU) implemented obligatory check of the investments posing threat of homeland security or to public order.

Separate developed countries strengthened so-called industrial reshoring (process of return of production to the country), clauses in the field of homeland security are excessively expanded.

Thus, these trends not only put pressure upon world trade, investments and economic growth, but also began to undermine the legal basis and rules of international trade. There is transition from globalization to regionalization.

2.2. Macroeconomic overview of the Republic of Kazakhstan

According to preliminary data in 10 months 2025 growth of economy of Kazakhstan constituted 6, %. The leading role in ensuring growth was occupied by the sectors oriented to the internal demand and final consumption. Especially dynamically the industries integrated to investments grow: growth in construction reached % 15,1, on transport and warehousing – % 20,7.

Industrial production increased on 7, %, the processing industry showed growth on % 5,8, the mining industry – on % 9,6.

According to the forecast of social and economic development of the Republic of Kazakhstan rates of surplus of GDP during 2025 - 2029 are expected at the level of 6%. At the same time the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan (further – NBRK) predicts GDP growth on % 5,6 in 2025 and 4,8 of % in 2026 - 2027.

Annual inflation in October, 2025 constituted % 12,6, having decreased by 30 basis points in comparison with September. Despite gradual delay of inflationary tendencies, price pressure remains essential. As a result of analytics of NBRK reviewed forecasts for inflation towards increase: the median forecast for 2025 is increased with % 11,3 to 12%, for 2026 – with % 9,5 to 10%, for 2027 – with % 6,5 to 7%.

According to the International Monetary Fund (further – the IMF) growth of economy of Kazakhstan in 2025 will constitute over 6%, and in 2026 – % 4,5. The stable internal demand, increase in the state investments and recovery of oil-and-gas sector act as key drivers of growth.

Asian Development Bank (further – ABR) improved the forecast of GDP growth of Kazakhstan to 5, of % in 2025 and 4,3 of % in 2026. Similar estimates were provided by the World Bank (further – the WB) expecting growth of economy on 5,5 of % and 4,5 of %, respectively.

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