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The document ceased to be valid since  July 27, 2016 according to Item 6 of the Order of the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic of  July 14, 2016 No. 395

ORDER OF THE GOVERNMENT OF THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

of June 12, 2015 No. 354

About the Forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2016 and 2017-2018

(as amended of the Order of the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic of 21.08.2015 No. 597)

For the purpose of determination of macroeconomic parameters of development of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2016 and 2017-2018, according to the Law of the Kyrgyz Republic "About the state forecasting of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic", articles 10 and 17 of the constitutional Law of the Kyrgyz Republic "About the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic" the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic decides:

1. Approve the Forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2016 and 2017-2018 according to appendix.

2. To the Ministry of Finance of the Kyrgyz Republic when forming the draft of the republican budget for 2016 and the forecast for 2017-2018 to take as basis the approved macroeconomic indicators of development of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2016 and 2017-2018.

3. To the ministries, state committee, administrative departments, offices of plenipotentiaries of the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic in areas, city halls of the cities of Bishkek and Osh:

- on monthly basis to perform monitoring of accomplishment of target indicators of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2016;

- monthly, no later than the 15th following the accounting period to provide in the Ministry of Economics of the Kyrgyz Republic information on the course of accomplishment of target indicators of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic in 2016.

4. To the Ministry of Economics of the Kyrgyz Republic:

- to quarterly generalize results of monitoring of accomplishment of target indicators of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic by the ministries, the state committee, administrative departments, offices of plenipotentiaries of the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic in areas, the city halls of the cities of Bishkek and Osh and no later than the 25th following reporting quarter, to provide in Government office of the Kyrgyz Republic information on accomplishment of target indicators of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic in 2016;

- publish the Forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2016 and 2017-2018 on the official website of the Ministry of Economics of the Kyrgyz Republic.

5. Declare invalid the order of the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic "About the Forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2015 and 2016-2017" of August 14, 2014 No. 469.

6. This resolution becomes effective after seven days from the date of official publication.

7. To impose control of execution of this resolution on department of economy and investments of Government office of the Kyrgyz Republic.

Prime Minister

T. Sariyev

Appendix

The forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2016 and 2017-2018

I. Introduction

Main objective of the Forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2016 and 2017-2018 is determination of reference points and measures of social and economic policy for state bodies, local government bodies, business entities for the medium-term period by refining and specification of tendencies and prerequisites, identification of the available resources and possible risk factors for development of national economy.

The forecast is calculated on the basis of the analysis of economic trends following the results of 2014, economic situation on preliminary results of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic for January-July, 2015 and estimates of the expected indicators of social and economic development of the country in 2015. The main directions of development of key sectors of economy for 2016, including the disaggregated description of their forecast values, and country economy growth prospects in 2017-2018, taking into account development of economy within integration merging of the Eurasian Economic Union (further - EEU), constructed based on official forecasts of the industry ministries, departments and the current tendencies are determined. External, internal factors and possible risks are designated.

Present the Forecast is basis for project development of the republican budget of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2016 and the forecast for 2017-2018.

II. The overview of macroeconomic situation for 2014 and results of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic for January-July, 2015

1. The brief summary of macroeconomic situation for 2014

Social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic in 2014 happened in the conditions of negative impact of global financial crisis, the continuing delay of growth rates of world economy, geoeconomic situation in the countries - the main trading partners (imposition of economic sanctions against Russia, crisis in the foreign exchange market due to strengthening of US dollar exchange rate in relation to other currencies and sharp decrease in world oil prices). Against the background of these factors within year tendencies of delay of economic growth and increase in the rate of inflation in the Kyrgyz Republic were observed.

Preserving positive dynamics of development of economy, macroeconomic and social stability in the country became the main result of results of 2014.

According to National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic (further - NSK), economic growth in the country in 2014 constituted % 103,6, against the actual growth of 110,9 of % in 2013. The amount of gross domestic product (further - GDP) developed in the amount 397, of 3 billion som. The deflator of GDP developed at the % 107,9 level. Without the companies for mining Kumtor the surplus of real GDP constituted % 4,6, for 2013 the similar indicator constituted % 6,1.

Per capita amount of GDP constituted 71, 2 thousand som and in comparison with 2013 increased on % 1,5.

Table 1

Structure and growth rates by the sectors creating VVP(1)

Indicators

2013, fact

2014, predv. fact

2014
(ozhid. post. of 14.08.2014 No. 469)

Otkl. growth rate from ozhid. (+/-) items.

one million som

growth rate,
%

in % to GDP

one million som

growth rate,
%

in % to GDP

share of contribution to GDP growth, items.

one million som

growth rate,
%

GDP

355294,8

110,9

100,0

397277,1

103,6

100,0

3,6

388813,7

104,5

- 0,9

Agricultural industry

52007,6

102,7

14,64

58888,7

99,4

14,8

- 0,09

58065,1

100,8

- 1,4

Industry

65801,5

135,9

18,53

61741,3

98,3

15,6

- 0,31

58504,0

105,1

- 6,8

Construction

22466,5

116,4

6,32

29461,1

124,9

7,4

1,57

30004,9

117,5

7,4

Services

165603,7

104,8

46,61

191139,3

104,1

48,1

1,94

186391,7

103,6

0,5

Net taxes on products and import

49415,5

110,9

13,91

56046,7

103,6

14,1

0,50

55848,0

104,5

- 0,9

Economic growth is provided at the expense of positive contribution of construction at the 1,57 level and service industries - 1,94 percent point. The negative contribution to forming of GDP was made by production reduction in agricultural industry at the level 0, and the industries - at the percent point 0,31 level where major factors were adverse climatic conditions for development of agricultural industry (approach of spring, drought, lack of watering, peak of approach of lack of water is later) and marked weakening of industrial output due to decrease in production of gold.

Major factors which rendered both positive, and negative effect on the main macroeconomic indicators became:

- geoeconomic situation in the countries - the main trading partners (imposition of economic sanctions, capital outflow, etc.);

- adverse climatic conditions for development of agricultural industry and power (approach of spring, drought, lack of watering, peak of approach of lack of water is later);

- delay of growth rates of the average monthly salary on % 1,2;

- decrease in amount of net inflow of money transfers of physical persons on 5,1 of % which in 2014 made 1811, 9 mln. dollars of the USA (in 2013 the amount constituted 1908, 2 mln. dollars of the USA);

- provision of soft credits to farmers (six banks issue the credits for total amount 5, 3 billion som), acquisition in leasing of agricultural machinery and release of fuel and lubricants at the expense of matrezerv;

- creating favorable conditions for business through reducing checks, the number of licenses and other measures of state regulation;

- growth of consumer crediting for % 36,7 in comparison with 2013;

- growth of crediting in economy for % 43,6 in comparison with 2013.

Growth of industries of economy was followed by improvement of social indicators of the country. For 2014 the income of the population grew and improvement of situation in the labor market is noted. 110252 workplaces were created. The government of the Kyrgyz Republic (further - the Government) held events for employment of jobless citizens both in the state, and beyond its limits. With assistance of public services of employment in 2014 48,1 of one thousand people was employed; it is 21,0% more, than in 2013 (39,7 of one thousand people).

The average monthly nominal wage of one worker (without small enterprises) in 2014 constituted 12285, 0 som and in comparison with 2013 increased by % 8,3, and its actual size estimated taking into account consumer price index increased on % 0,7 (in 2013 constituted 11341, 0 som and in comparison with 2012 increased by % 5,7).

The size of subsistence minimum in 2014 constituted 4981, the 5th catfish and in comparison with 2013 increased on % 8,3. The average size of the salary almost in 2,5 of time covers the size of subsistence minimum. For the last 4 years the average size of pension increased by % 21,3, with 3760,0 to 4562, of 0 som, and in relation to subsistence minimum of the pensioner - with % 95,6 to % 102,9.

In 2014 the specific weight of expenses from the government budget on the social sphere (53363, 4 million som) made % 57,8, all 2 million som more, than in 2013 were directed on 11449,.

The amount of the income of the government budget for 2014 made 119376, one million som, or % 101,6 by 2013, share to GDP - % 28,2. Social obligations within the approved parameters are fulfilled.

Budget deficit for 2014 made % 0,5 to GDP, against % 0,7 - in 2013. The public external debt at the end of 2014 constituted 50,9 of % of GDP.

Inflation in 2014 changed in the range from % 3,6 to 10,5%, and its annual average value made % 7,5.

Table 2

Indicators of the consumer price index (CPI)

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

2013

2014

1

In % by December of previous year

104,0

110,5

2

In % by the corresponding period of previous year (annual average value)

106,6

107,5

Positive dynamics of development of banking sector was noted that was followed by total increase in assets of bank system which since the beginning of 2014 grew by 23,9 of % and constituted 137, 6 billion som. The general deposit base of banking sector (without the deposits provided to banks and other financial credit institutes) constituted 77, 9 billion som, having increased since the beginning of year by % 22,1, including deposits of physical persons constituted 34, 6 billion som, surplus since the beginning of year - on % 23,7.

The amount of credit portfolio (without the loans granted to banks and other financial credit institutes) banking sector as of December 31, 2014 made 78, 6 billion som, having increased since the beginning of year by % 45,9.

Credit amount in economy (2) in 2014 constituted 82, 1 billion som, having increased since the beginning of 2014 by % 43,6 (in 2013 - % 36,1).

For the purpose of stimulation of agricultural production the Financing of Agricultural Industry-2 project is realized (the order of the Government of January 31, 2014 No. 61) within which six banks of the republic to farmers allocate 15525 soft credits for the total amount of 5300 million som.

Level of capitalization of economy increased with % 23,3 in 2013 up to % 26,6 - in 2014, generally at the expense of growth in volumes of the foreign credits (in time 2,5), means of the population (on % 15,2), means of the companies and the organizations (on % 15,0). In 2014 15 projects, from them 7 projects - in agro-industrial complex, 4 projects - in the energy sector, 4 projects - in the sphere of transport and communications are realized.

In 2014 level of consumption of the population decreased on 0,4 percent point, to 115, % to GDP (in 2013 - % 115,6 to GDP). The share of private consumption constituted % 97,8 that is caused by decrease in growth rates of average monthly nominal wage, growth of expenses on social support of the population, decrease in net inflow of money transfers of the physical persons made through systems of transfer (in 2014 constituted 1811, 9 mln. dollars of the USA), and also growth of the market of consumer crediting (on % 36,7 in comparison with 2013). The specific weight of the state consumption in structure of use of GDP was lost with % 18,4 in 2013 to % 17,2 - in 2014.

In 2014 the amount of foreign trade turnover made 7612, 3 mln. dollars of the USA and in comparison with 2013 was reduced by % 4,8. Deficit of trading balance in 2014 made 3852, 5 mln. dollars of the USA and was reduced in comparison with 2013 by % 3,2. As a result of the advancing growth rate of import over export the negative balance of net commodity export and services to GDP remains high which in 2014 constituted (assessment) (-) % 49,9 (in 2013 (-) % 49,5).

For the purpose of ensuring financing of actions for conservation, recovery of losses in the environment, 75 million som are allocated to preserving biodiversity and forest ecosystems, development of forest industry and especially protected natural territories from means of funds of conservation and development of forest industry in 2014 202,. Growth of the amount of financing of nature protection activities in comparison with 2013 constitutes % 133,6.

Actively the Actions plan ("road map") on accession of the Kyrgyz Republic to the Common economic space of the Republic of Belarus, the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation, taking into account forming of EEU, No. 75 approved by the Decision of the Supreme Eurasian economic council of October 10, 2014 was implemented. Large-scale work on reduction of the national legal system is carried out to compliance with the regulatory base of EEU within which changes and additions are made to 112 regulatory legal acts (38 laws, 74 other regulatory legal acts).

Signing on December 23, 2014 of the Treaty of Accession of the Kyrgyz Republic to the Agreement on the Eurasian Economic Union of May 29, 2014 became the main event of 2014. On January 1, 2015 the largest integration consolidation - EEU which will provide freedom of movement of goods, services, the capitals and manpower between EEU member countries began to work at the former Soviet Union.

The approved economic policy pursued in 2014, despite negative impact of situation, the continuing delay of growth rates of world economy, including in the countries - the main trading partners (the Russian Federation, the Republic of Kazakhstan), allowed to keep the outlined positive dynamics of development of economy, macroeconomic and social stability in the country.

2. Preliminary results of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic for January-July, 2015

Preserving positive growth trend became the main result of results for January-July, 2015.

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