ORDER OF THE GOVERNMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN

of April 5, 2023 No. 275

About approval of Economic policy for the medium-term period

According to the subitem 1) of article 9 of the Constitutional law of the Republic of Kazakhstan "About the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan" the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan DECIDES:

1. Approve the enclosed Economic policy for the medium-term period.

2. To state bodies to take the necessary measures following from this resolution.

3. This resolution becomes effective from the date of its signing and is subject to official publication.

Approved by the Order of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan of April 5, 2023 No. 275

Economic policy for the medium-term period

1. Introduction

Today development of Kazakhstan is aimed at exit to trajectory of strong growth as the state with market economy, the full-fledged member of the world community and the conventional leader in the Central Asian region.

The national economy which is based on use of raw capacity of the country managed to overcome number of challenges and to endure difficult years of world crises.

At the same time deterioration in geopolitical situation in the world, the political and military conflicts, sanctions oppositions, consequences of pandemic started process of forming of new political and economic geography of the world.

On this background the international institutes predict delay of world economy and emergence of risks of global recession.

At the same time in economy of Kazakhstan the system problems constraining its development and capable to lead to growth of social tension remain.

For giving of new impulse to development reconsideration of the principles and mechanisms of economic policy, ensuring its predictability, determination of role of the state and change-over of "rules of the game" for the purpose of stimulation of business activity are required.

The state will be concentrated on realization of strategic functions on ensuring national security, rule of law and law and order, development of human capital, expansion of basic infrastructure, regional development, coordination and regulation of economic processes.

(Further – Economic policy) creation of inclusive economy with equitable distribution of the income and growth of level of living of citizens will become the main postulate of Economic policy for the medium-term period.

Effective realization of policy will lead to increase in motivation of economically active population and will allow to implement new format of "social contract".

2. Analysis of the current situation

Over the last ten years the economy of Kazakhstan grew in real terms by % 36,4. The service industry in which growth constituted % 42,6 while production of goods grew by % 31,2 became the main driver of economic growth. In structure of GDP the share of services increased by 2,3 of items (% 53,8), the share of production of goods in GDP decreased on - 0,1 of items (% 40,4).

At the same time, considering dynamics of growth of economy of Kazakhstan on the level of the income according to classification of the World Bank (with use the Atlas method), it should be noted the following.

From the middle of the 2000th years Kazakhstan treats the countries with the level of the income above average. In case of this GDP per capita since 2012 is on the descending trajectory, having decreased with 9,9 to 8, 7 thousand dollars of the USA.

In too time for the last decades such countries as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania made high-quality breakthrough, having turned from category of the countries with the level of the income of above-average into category of the countries with the high income.

It demonstrates that the problem of "trap of average earnings" is still urgent for Kazakhstan.

In addition since 2012 up to pandemiyny 2020 lagging of actual growth of the income of the population from growth rates of GDP was observed. Growth of the income of the population was mainly supported due to increase in social transfers in case of decrease in GDP growth. After that the trend was replaced towards lagging of growth rates of GDP from growth rate of real cash incomes of the population – % 24,7 against 27% in 2020 and 30,1 of % against % 33,5 in 2021 respectively.

Considering these tendencies, there is need of quality assurance of economic growth.

At the same time the operating business case oriented to production and export of the hydrocarbons and mineral resources which are not able to generate further sustainable and inclusive economic development.

High concentration in raw sectors, low levels of "complexity" of release and export of products, and also competitiveness in comparison with the countries of the region are observed. Confirmation to that is the 78th line item of Kazakhstan in the rating of "Index of economic complexity" (for comparison Belarus – 31 place, Russia – the 52nd place, Georgia – the 63rd place, Kyrgyzstan – the 66th place).

In industrial regions there is depletion of raw inventories, high level physical and obsolescence of large-scale productions is observed. The gap between the actual consumption and generation of the electric power caused by considerable share of the obsolete capital equipment of power plants increases (to 70%).

Stagnation and lack of high-quality transformation in economy negatively influence the budget parameters.

In structure of budget receipts high dependence on raw industries is observed. Dynamics of receipts directly depends on the markets where price volatility is regulation. For example, over the last 5 years account part of the budget was not supported with the sufficient profitable base capable to fully provide its account part. So, in 2021 tax revenues constituted 10, 7 trillion tenge in case of budgeted expenses in the amount of 18, of 6 trillion tenge. At the same time part of expenses was compensated by transfers from National fund (4, to 5 trillion tenge).

Budgeted expenses increased only due to increase in current expenses which do not include investment projects of development (the share of the budget of development in 11 years decreased from 23% to 13%).

Not oil deficit of the republican budget made 10,6 of % of GDP and increased from-883 billion tenges in 2018 to - 8, 2 trillion tenge in 2021.

At the same time in the medium term Kazakhstan can face new demographic challenges. For the last decade in structure of the population there is reducing share of able-bodied population in case of increase in share of the population is more senior and is especially younger than working-age.

By estimates of the UN by 2050 the quantity of the elderly population will grow in time 2,2, and its share will constitute 14% while the share of the population of children's age will decrease to 23%. It, in turn, will lead to growth of coefficient of demographic loading.

Change of structure of the population substantially will affect the labor market, education systems and health cares, and also the pension system.

In this regard, considering the occurring demographic tendencies, adaptation of the country and use of human capital requires creation of favorable social and economic conditions.

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