of December 31, 2019 No. 1050
About approval of the State program of industrial and innovative development of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2020 - 2025
The government of the Republic of Kazakhstan DECIDES:
1. Approve the enclosed State program of industrial and innovative development of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2020 - 2025 (further - the Program).
2. To the central and local executive bodies, the organizations to take measures for program implementation.
3. To responsible central and local executive bodies, the organizations (in coordination) to provide information according to the Actions plan on program implementation according to the order of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan of November 29, 2017 to No. 790 "About approval of System of state planning in the Republic of Kazakhstan".
4. To impose control of execution of this resolution on the Ministry of the industry and infrastructure development of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan
Approved by the Order of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan of December 31, 2019 No. 1050
The state program of industrial and innovative development of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2020-2025.
Basis for development
1. The presidential decree of the Republic of Kazakhstan of February 15, 2018 No. 636 "About approval of the Strategic plan of development of the Republic of Kazakhstan till 2025".
Responsible for development
Ministry of the industry and infrastructure development of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
State bodies and organizations responsible for program implementation
Central and local executive bodies, subjects of the quasi-public sector.
Competitive processing industry of the Republic of Kazakhstan on internal and the foreign markets.
1) deepening of industrialization by increase in potential of industrial entrepreneurship;
Achievement in 2025 of the following pokazateley*:
Sources and amounts of financing
Total required expenses from the republican budget on program implementation in 2020 - 2025 constitute the 780th 797, 1 million tenges **, including:
* accomplishment of target indicators of the Program will depend on the amounts of financing of the Program for the corresponding financial years;
** the amounts will be specified according to the republican budget for the corresponding financial year.
In industrial policy Kazakhstan adheres to uncontested rate on development of the non-oil sectors of economy which are not depending on environment of the world markets. For the solution of this task in Kazakhstan since 2010 the new pro-active industrial policy directed to creation of high-productive and export-oriented processing industry step by step is implemented.
Main goal of state policy of industrialization as catalyst and basis of diversification of all economy, creation of conditions for development and formation of processing industry the main driver of national economy is.
Stable growth and competitiveness of the processing sector will be reached by creation of technologically progressive industry, transformation and digitalization of fixed assets of the operating plants oriented to creation of average, high-technology products with the subsequent exit to the global markets.
So, for years of industrialization the advancing growth rates of production of processing industry are reached, in 1,3 of time the labor productivity grew, in 2,1 of times inflow of investments into fixed capital of the companies of industry increased.
Production of 500 new types of products which were earlier not made in Kazakhstan is mastered: cargo and cars, electric locomotives, cargo, cars and buses, transformers, X-ray equipment, LED lamps, titanic ingots and slabs, medicines, dairy products and others.
Goods quantity, made in Kazakhstan and competitive in the foreign markets increased, including: steam turbines, products from copper, radiators, accumulators, drinks, confectionery, etc.
The high-quality industrial breakthrough and creation of competitive processing industry, especially in the conditions of aggravation of geopolitical situation and global trade wars, requires carrying out the consecutive and weighed state policy taking into account respect for balance of interests of business and the state and improvement of social and economic development of the country.
The State program of industrial and innovative development of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2020 - 2025 (further - the Program) which is logical continuation of long-term rate on diversification of economy is for this purpose developed.
In modern world economy the global economic competition amplifies that sets for Kazakhstan task of preparation of the economy by "digital era". Taking into account it industrial and innovative development remains to one of the main priorities of state policy in the long term.
Within the forthcoming third five-years period of industrialization and according to the main directions of the Strategic plan of development of the Republic of Kazakhstan till 2025 the accent in the state industrial policy will be made on creation of export-oriented economy with high value added. Orientation to export is dictated by need of expansion of the markets of the growing amount of goods and services and embedding in global chains of value creation. Export-oriented industrialization will allow to bring new Kazakhstan goods, including goods of high-technology repartitions to the foreign markets.
For this purpose it is necessary to provide complex of the stimulating measures for the producers oriented to the foreign market. And first of all in the processing sector. In particular, considering industry formation process of "digital era" the accented stimulation of exporters of high-technology products and services will be performed. The mechanism of the state stimulation will be built so that to stimulate transition of the companies to model of export-oriented development. This mechanism will also be directed to attraction and deduction of external investments. Measures for development of technologies and innovations in processing industry will become key factor of development of strategic competitive advantages of the Kazakhstan goods and services.
Transition to innovative economy assumes continuation of system reforms in the field of training, scientific and applied researches, support of startups, transfer of advanced technology, creation of venture ecosystem, etc.
At the same time, the pro-active industrial and innovative policy of the state will be pursued in partnership with business. Measures for support will be provided in exchange for their counter obligations.
Thus, the change of technological and world economic ways resulting now, the state industrial and innovative policy shall increase the efficiency and capability to adapt to rapidly changing conditions. It assumes essential increase in role of industrial and innovative development and its influence on ensuring sustained economic growth.
Subject to the foregoing focus of the Program is creation of conditions for stimulation of competitiveness of processing industry of the Republic of Kazakhstan by development of productions with high value added on internal and the foreign markets through the corresponding financing for achievement of the planned ambitious results.
Intercountry the analysis shows that the share of processing industry in world economy constitutes 15, %1, that above the Kazakhstan level (% 11,4) 2. In the countries of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and also the European Union this indicator averages 14%. In many developing countries the share of processing industry reaches 20 - 35%: for example, in China - 29%, Malaysia - 22%, Indonesia - 20%, in the countries of the former Soviet Union, in particular, in Russia - 12%; Belarus - 22%; To Ukraine - 12%. Success of economies of China and Korea is connected with transition to industrial way of the development promoting preserving high share of processing industry in structure of gross domestic product of the country.
For the period implementation of two programs of industrialization in 2010-2018 there was positive dynamics of development of processing industry, the production volume increased with 3, 8 trillion tenges in basic 2010 to 10, of 4 trillion tenges in 2018, or in time 2,7, in nominal terms. Annual average growth rate of index of physical industrial output of processing industry in the specified period made 4,5 of % and increased, in total, by % 42,3 (2018 to level 2009). It is twice higher than similar indicator in the mining sector (% 21,4).
(1) World Bank Database.
(2) World Bank Database.
The real surplus of gross value added of processing industry for 2009-2018 constituted in total 48% that is proportional to surplus of gross domestic product of Kazakhstan (% 47,9 - 2018 by 2009). One of major factors of such synchronism is delay of rates of surplus of mining industry of the Republic of Kazakhstan to % 22,9 as a result of reduction of prices of raw material resources in the foreign markets.
In structure of release of processing industry for 2018 the metallurgy (% 44,4), in 2010 - % 41,5 continues to prevail, some decrease in share of production of food is observed (with % 18,1 to % 14,7), the mechanical engineering share (with % 9,8 to % 10,5), the chemical industry slightly increased (% 2,7 to % 3,9). The specific weight of other industries practically did not undergo changes (the drawing 1).
Drawing. Industry structure of industries of processing industry in 2010 and 2018, in % to result (100% - all processing industry)
Source: KS MNE
In the last 10 years high growth rates of processing industry of Kazakhstan were provided mainly due to expansion of participation of the country in the world raw markets (basic metals and materials). Now according to the international institutes and representatives of business community, the raw super-cycle is finished. Opportunities of economic growth at the expense of sales of goods of low repartitions are exhausted.
For example, the share of metallurgical industry of processing industry of the country with the low level of repartitions (production of sheets from steel, the refined copper and so forth) during the period from 2014 to 2018 increased with % 31,4 to % 44,4 respectively, despite the fact that in 2019 there was reduction of prices on the The London Metal Exchange. The price for 1 ton of copper in May, 2018 constituted 7000 dollars, in 2019 6000 dollars.
The question of intensive development of processing industry at the expense of production organization of the products of the most high-technology complexity oriented to world trade, purchase prices not subject to sudden changes on raw materials ripened.
For example, in Japan focus of production is concentrated on high-technology products (steel for shipbuilding, transport, electrical equipment). As a result of it metallurgical production of Japan is stabler to global jumps in prices of raw materials (steel).
Figure 2. Comparison of influence of price index became on ferrous metallurgy in Kazakhstan and Japan.
Sources: Bloomberg, Bureau of Statistics of Japan, KS MNE
Now the state support of the whole industries cannot introduce that any more considerable effect which was required in the first years of industrialization.
Support of the basic base of processing industry was response to the world economic crisis, become some kind of crisis response measure for economy of Kazakhstan.
At the moment Kazakhstan needs to diversify as soon as possible the export and consumer goods basket, to depart from practice of support of the whole industries.
There was need of determination of the list of the priority goods of processing industry with the high level of technological complexity oriented to export and domestic market.
On the third stage of industrialization in front of Kazakhstan there are tasks of high-quality growth of processing industry oriented to "development". These tasks are dictated as external "big challenges" of global nature, and internal processes.
Kazakhstan needs to leave the resource model of growth posing in itself certain threats to stability of economic development. The industrial policy of the country will determine the strategic approaches necessary for the translation of challenges from the status of problems in category of opportunities which can use for high-quality development of processing industry.
In regional section the greatest contribution to development of processing industry is made by the Karaganda, Pavlodar and East Kazakhstan regions (in total about 41%) due to concentration in them the large metallurgical enterprises. The Turkestan, Almaty regions and the city of Almaty provide more than 17% of all gross value added of processing industry. The third group of regions (share of everyone from 2 to % 8,5 in gross value added of industry) are Nour-Sultan's city, Akmola, Aktyubinsk, Kostanay and Atyrau regions. And at last, the 4th group of regions makes the minimum contribution - more 6,5 of % of the total amount of gross value added - Kyzylorda, Mangystau, West Kazakhstan and North Kazakhstan areas.
The analysis of degree of concentration of the companies of various industries in regional section shows the greatest focus of metallurgical industry (in the Karaganda, Pavlodar and East Kazakhstan regions) to which share 76,5 of % of gross value added of industry falls. The group of companies of production of food following in size of share in gross value added is characterized by rather high geographical representation: more than 80% of gross value added of this industry are the share of 9 regions of Kazakhstan. Production of coke and products of oil processing concentrated, generally in 3 regions where the largest oil refineries - Shymkent are located, Atyrau and Pavlodar regions, the level of concentration of industry in these regions constitutes 85%. Construction materials are made everywhere in all regions of Kazakhstan: 79% of gross value added are the share of 9 regions.
In processing industry for the beginning of 2019 23003 companies, including 14700 of them - acting are registered, are 8398 active companies.
In regional section the greatest number of the companies of processing industry of the republic is registered in of Almaty (24%) and Nur-Sultan (12%), and also in the Karaganda region (11%). By the number of the companies in regions the benefit remains behind production of food that objectively reflects paramount requirements of the local markets.
Level of utilization of capacity the company of processing industry on average constitutes 44% - 58%. According to National chamber of entrepreneurs of the Republic of Kazakhstan of Atameken load of the companies furniture, woodworking and pulp and paper industry makes 45 - 59% shortage of financial resources on current assets on upgrade of capacities, absence or the insufficient product demand of the companies in the internal and external markets, insufficiency or lack of the prepared personnel for work on the special equipment, problem with raw materials are.3 Basic reasons of nedozagruzhennost of domestic enterprises of processing industry.
There is no kollaboratsionny communication between the companies of processing industry and producers of finished high-quality raw goods. With respect thereto in the country high dependence on import raw materials and accessories is observed that crucially influences competitiveness of the Kazakhstan producers.
Absence or lack of the made raw materials and accessories are caused by the following reasons:
- technological backwardness of raw production (lack of production of high-quality raw materials and materials);
- economic inexpediency of production of certain types of raw materials (small internal requirement);
- lack of basic raw materials for the organization of the subsequent conversion.
Many present giants of processing industry of the world, for example, as South Korea, once were engaged only in production of end products from the raw materials and accessories imported from the different countries. Such strategy of receipt of the maximum benefit from the current state of the economy allowed these countries to become the leading producers in the world market in the industries over time.
(3) the National chamber of entrepreneurs of the Republic of Kazakhstan of Atameken carried out certification of the companies of processing industry within which 2102 companies were covered that constitutes 14% of all operating or 25% of the active companies.
Thereof, at the moment very urgent is development of own non-oil export due to stimulation of integration and corresponding growth of share of economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan in world production and trade chains. Establishing productions due to import necessary raw materials and accessories, deepening of their conversion and the subsequent sales of products with bigger value added through the principles of importodopolneniye is possible.
Important factor of stable activity of the companies is security with raw materials. The highest level of security with domestic raw materials is observed in such industries as production of coke and oil processing (98%), production of metallurgical products (90%), production of finished metal goods (except machines and the equipment) (86%).
At the same time, according to data of certification, third (32%) of the companies of processing industry has problems with security with raw materials, including: companies food (42%), easy (40%), furniture, woodworking and pulp-and-paper (9 - 15%), chemical (35%) and pharmaceutical (29%) industries.
In general, regional concentration of the companies by industries reflects proximity to raw material resources or availability of the product demand of industry in the domestic markets in large megalopolises that is connected with availability of solvent demand.
In processing industry three industry clusters depending on their technological complexity measured by intensity of use of technologies in proizvodstve4 high-tech, srednetekhnologichny and low-technology industries are allocated.
Following the results of 2018, the greatest specific weight in processing industry of Kazakhstan is occupied by srednetekhnologichny industries (% 47,9). Further - low-technology (% 41,2); high-technology (% 10,9). In comparison with 2010 the share of high-tech industries raised with % 8,9 to % 10,9, at the same time the share of low-technology industries decreased with % 43,1 to % 41,2., average from 48% to % 47,9. So far these changes are insignificant for approach to the level of developed countries of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in which the basis of optimum technological structure is constituted by high and srednetekhnologichny technology productions (about 48%), and high technology productions occupy about 20%.5
Among high-tech industries of processing industry of the Republic of Kazakhstan production of products of the chemical industry (3,7 of % of the total amount of processing industry) and the main pharmaceutical products (2%) prevails. The greatest specific weight in srednetekhnologichny industries is occupied by metallurgical industry (44,7 of % of all amount of processing industry) and production of other nonmetallic mineral products (% 5,8). Among low-technology industries it should be noted production of food (14,9 of % of the total amount of processing industry), production of coke and products of oil processing (% 8,4), production of drinks (% 3,3).
In 9 regions of Kazakhstan dominate low - technological industries while in 7 the share of products of average technological complexity prevails. Areas belong to regions with prevalence of products of high technological complexity Jambyl (% 43,5), Mangystau (% 18,6), Almaty (% 26,7) and Kostanay (% 26,3) (the drawing 3).
(4) UNIDO. Classification of industries of processing industry. https://stat.unido.org/content/focus/classification-of-manufacturing-sectors-by-technological-intensity
(5) About the industry and technological shifts necessary for upgrade of the Russian economy. S. Akayev, V. Sokolov/MIR (Upgrades. Innovations. Development), 2016, No. T.7, 3, page 38-48
Figure 3. Specialization of regions in technological complexity, 2018, in % to result of =100% for each region
Source: KS MNE
Complex questioning (on methodology of Institute of Fraunhofer) revealed more than 600 companies for the purpose of assessment of readiness of industrial enterprises for digitalization that more than 80% of the companies processing and 60% of the companies of mining industry are at the Industry level 2.0 (the semi-automated transactions) or at stage of transition to automated production. At the same time 3% in processing and 21% are in ore mining industry at the level of the Industry 3.0 or are completely automated.
According to official statistics indicators of innovative activities of the Republic of Kazakhstan from the moment of program implementation of industrial and innovative development show positive dynamics.
Innovative activity of the companies of processing industry from 2010 to 2018 increased by 3 times, with % 4,6 to % 15,8.
Costs for technological innovations in processing industry following the results of 2018 constituted 610, 8 billion tenges (202, 9 billion tenges in 2014).
The amount of the made innovative products in processing industry increased in 7, time and reached 930, one billion tenges in 2018 in relation to 2010. Export of innovative products increased more than by 5 times with 31 427, of 8 million tenges in 2015 to 161 671, 9 million tenges in 2018. Despite so high rate of growth, the share of innovative products in gross domestic product remains at extremely low level - % 1,6.
In spite of the fact that in the country growth of amount of costs for innovations is observed, in release of innovative products Kazakhstan still lags behind technologically developed countries. So, the specific weight of the organizations performing technological innovations following the results of 2018 made % 6,6 against 34%, 36,7 of % and 55% in Great Britain, France and Germany sootvetstvenno6. At the same time according to indicator of global index of competitiveness of the World Economic Forum on factor "the innovative potential" in 2018 Kazakhstan took the 87th place, according to the rating of the Global index of innovations Kazakhstan takes the 74th place (Russia - 46, Ukraine - 44).
The indicator of costs for research and development works in Kazakhstan constitutes 0,12 of % of gross domestic product while it is equal in the countries of the European Union to 2%, in the certain countries reaches 3 - 4% (for example, Israel - % 4,5, Sweden - % 3,3), the minimum indicator - % 0,5 in Latvia.
The technological upgrade which is carried out by the separate large companies of Kazakhstan, and also the enclosed measures of state policy allowed to increase increase in labor productivity on one occupied with 4367, in 0 thousand tenges in 2010 to 11849, in 0 thousand tenges in 2018. The increase in labor productivity in processing industry was also affected by low contribution of employment figure which by comparison to growth rates of release of industry promoted the advancing labor productivity surplus, in comparison with similar indicators in general on economy and all industry. So, if for the analyzed period cumulatively the labor productivity on all economy and separately in the industry grew by 33,5 of % and 10,9 of %, respectively, that in processing industry growth of indicator developed on the % mark 34,8.
However the devaluation processes taking place in the analyzed period lowered picture of increase in labor productivity in economy of Kazakhstan by comparison to similar indicators of other countries in dollar equivalent. As a result of sharp impairment of tenge in 2014 - 2016 the increase in labor productivity in processing industry of Kazakhstan in dollar expression constituted in 2018 35, 3 thousand dollars of the USA (for comparison: in 2013 - 45, 9 thousand dollars of the USA). Besides, according to assessment of the international experts, one of the reasons of low growth rates of labor productivity is the out-of-focus state support covering including inefficient kompanii7.
Figure 4. Labor productivity in general on economy, the industry and industries of the Republic of Kazakhstan in 2010 - 2018, thousand dollars the USA/persons.
Source: KS MNE
Subject to the foregoing the labor productivity in general on economy of Kazakhstan continues to remain at a low level, in 5, time there are lower than the level of developed countries of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (16, 5 thousand dollars of the USA against 94, of 6 thousand dollars of the USA for 2017). The labor productivity in processing industry of the Republic of Kazakhstan increased in 2018 to the level of 2010 by only 6% in dollar equivalent, for comparison, on average over the countries of the European Union (28 countries), growth in 2017, in comparison with 2009, constituted % 30,6, including in the countries of the Eurozone - on % 34,9.
Comparative productivity analysis of work of separate industries of processing industry shows strong dispersion in values: from 257, 1 thousand dollars of the USA in production of coke and products of oil processing to 5, 6 thousand dollars of the USA in light industry.
(7) World Bank, report "Overcoming stagnation of performance"
Figure 5. Labor productivity by separate types of economic activity of processing industry of the Republic of Kazakhstan in 2018, thousand dollars the USA/persons.
Source: KS MNE
The foreign trade balance of processing industry of Kazakhstan throughout the analyzed period remained negative. Following the results of 2018 import constituted 30, 5 bln. dollars of the USA, having exceeded export (15, 8 bln. dollars of the USA) on 14, 7 bln. dollars of the USA.
Annual average growth rates of export of processing industry of Kazakhstan in the analyzed period made 2% that is much lower than similar indicators, for example, of Russia (% 7,5), the USA (% 3,8), Germany (% 5,9), Great Britain (% 2,4).
In commodity structure the greatest export volumes of processing industry for 2010 - 2018 fall on 3 industry clusters - metallurgy, production of coke and products of oil processing and products of the chemical industry. Further food and drinks, and also mechanical engineering products follow. The country is one of world leaders on deliveries of separate types of ferroalloys, yellow phosphorus, flour, cotton oil. There was essential shift in metallurgy: transition from production of basic metals (copper, lead, zinc, etc.), semi-products (slabs, blyum, etc. procurements) and semifinished products (rolling products) to finished product output (steel pipes, metalwork, rails, wire) is performed.
Import of products of processing industry to Kazakhstan for the analyzed period constituted annual average near 30, 5 bln. dollars of the USA, or 90,5 of % of the total amount of commodity import. In 2014 - 2016 import was reduced, mainly, because of devaluation of tenge and, respectively, decrease in price competitiveness of import goods in comparison with domestic.
The greatest import volumes for 2010 - 2018 fall on 5 industry clusters - mechanical engineering, metallurgical industry, the chemical industry, production of food and drinks.
In structure of import products highly (56%) and srednetekhnologichny (18%) industries, in the amount of the making 73% of all import prevail (by data for 2018). The remained 27% fall on goods of low-technology industries, including consumer goods - food, drinks, tobacco and clothes, etc. Products of light industry occupy % 13,4.
In Kazakhstan positive dynamics of inflow of investments into processing industry is noted. In 2018 I will eat around the investments into fixed capital involved with the companies of processing industry of Kazakhstan constituted 1242 billion tenges that is three times higher than similar indicator in 2010 (413 billion tenges). Nevertheless, these amounts of investment continue to remain lower than the volumes of investment which arrived in fixed capital of the extracting industries (4494, 0 billion tenges in 2018), more than in time 3,5.
Inflow of investments into fixed capital of the processing industry by all economy and the industry is comparable to contribution of processing industry to gross domestic product of the country and the industry, in general, for the analyzed period. So, for the analyzed period of investment into fixed capital (in current prices) on all economy and the industry cumulatively grew by 144,8 of % and 198,8 of %, respectively. From them 19,6 of items and 59,7 of items fall on processing industry.
Figure 6. Decomposition of cumulative growth rates of investments into fixed capital on all economy and the industry for 2010-2018, in %
Calculations of TsIPE according to KS MNE
The largest volume of investment for all analyzed period arrived in metallurgical industry - 34, % of the total volume of investment for the entire period, production of coke and products of oil processing - 23,9 of %, other nonmetallic mineral products - 9,5 of %, chemical products - 8,5 of %, food - % 7,7. The volumes of investment attracted in fixed capital of other sectors of processing industry are insignificant (ranging from 1 to 2% of total amount).
Distribution of investments into processing industry on regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan depends on industry specialization and geographical concentration of industrial enterprises. Most of all investments into fixed capital invest in those regions where large enterprises of key branches of processing industry are located (metallurgical and) are oil processing the Pavlodar, Karaganda, Turkestan, Atyrau areas.
In the outsiders who received less than 150 billion tenges of investments into processing industry for the analyzed period there were North Kazakhstan, West Kazakhstan, Kyzylorda and Kostanay areas.
For investment attraction and promotion of export in Kazakhstan the special economic zones and industrial zones constituting infrastructure of industrial and innovative system of the country are created. Today in the country 13 special economic zones and 23 industrial zones function.
In the territories of special economic zones, for all the time of their functioning (from 2002 to 2019) 183 projects, 46 of which - with foreign participation are started. As a result of implementation of these projects 15,5 of one thousand workplaces is created, tax revenues in the budget constituted 150 billion tenges.
Budget costs on construction of infrastructure of all special economic zones constituted 314, 3 billion tenges, at the same time amount of the involved investments constituted about 975 billion tenges. That is 1 budget tenge invested in infrastructure of special economic zones allowed to attract 2, 8 tenges of private investments (the share of foreign participation constituted 27%).
On industrial zones 168 productions, with the volume of investment about 183 billion tenges are started. More 8,5 of thousand workplaces is created. On infrastructure of industrial zones 9 billion tenges are invested 85,. Thus, for 1 invested budget tenge it is attracted 2, with 1 tenge of investments.
On amount of the involved investments industrial zones of Kyzylorda area are in the lead.
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