of April 24, 2019 No. 351
About approval of the Technique of assessment of fiscal risks
1. Approve the Technique of assessment of fiscal risks which is applied.
2. Determine that:
1) the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, the Ministry of social policy, the Pension fund of Ukraine, Fund of state-owned property, Public service on emergency situations:
submit to the Ministry of Finance necessary information for carrying out overall assessment of fiscal risks according to the Technique approved by this resolution;
together with the Ministry of Finance shall take measures for minimization of impact of fiscal risks on indicators of the government budget;
2) the Ministry of Finance cooperates with National Bank and Fund of guaranteeing household deposits (in coordination) concerning identification, assessment, monitoring and development of actions for minimization of fiscal risks.
3. The paragraph of the sixth of Item 15 of the Technique of assessment of the fiscal risks connected with activities of subjects of managing of public sector of the economy approved by the resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine of January 11, 2018 No. 7 (Official Bulletin of Ukraine, 2018, No. 8, Art. 309), to exclude.
Prime Minister of Ukraine
Approved by the Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine of April 24, 2019 No. 351
1. This Technique establishes the mechanism of determination of possible cost impact of fiscal risks on indicators of the government budget and determines types of fiscal risks which are subject to assessment, the bodies responsible for carrying out such assessment, procedure for its carrying out, measure for minimization of fiscal risks.
2. In this Technique the term "fiscal risks" is used in the value given in the Budget code of Ukraine.
Fiscal risks are expressed in absolute figures or as a percentage gross domestic product.
3. The purpose of evaluating fiscal risks is determination of their possible influence on indicators of the government budget, timely taking measures, the fiscal risks directed to prevention of origin and their minimization.
4. The risks connected with belong to main types of fiscal risks which assessment is carried out according to requirements of this Technique:
1) change in the macroeconomic circle;
2) contingent obligations to which potential obligations of the government budget which prove to be true only after approach or not approach of certain events which arise in connection with belong:
provision of the state guarantees on the credits;
activities of subjects of managing of public sector of economy;
functioning of the financial sector;
projects implementation of public-private partnership;
mitigation of consequences of emergency situations of technogenic, natural and other nature;
3) failure to carry out of the plan of receipts from privatization of state-owned property;
4) variation from planned targets in the sphere of provision of pensions.
5. The Ministry of Finance is responsible for carrying out overall assessment of fiscal risks.
6. Ministries of Economics, Minsotspolitiki, the Pension fund of Ukraine, Fund of state-owned property, GSChS (further - the bodies responsible for assessment of fiscal risks) determine in the structure the structural divisions responsible for representation of information to the Ministry of Finance necessary for carrying out overall assessment of fiscal risks which can influence indicators of the government budget what notify the Ministry of Finance on.
7. During evaluating fiscal risks the bodies responsible for assessment of fiscal risks can apply the scenario analysis which provides determination of several options (scenarios) of succession of events and carrying out their comparative assessment, including modeling of stressful scenarios for the corresponding indicators for the purpose of determination of their influence on indicators of the government budget.
Assessment of the fiscal risks connected with changes in the macroeconomic circle
8. Negative changes of the main forecast indicators (in particular, gross domestic product, the national currency rate, price indexes, amount of profit of the companies, the salary fund of hired employees and cash cover of the military personnel, indicators of foreign trade, etc.) which resulted from refining of statistical data towards reduction, deterioration in the current social and economic situation owing to internal and external risks and review of scenario operating conditions of economy taking into account new challenges of development of economy belong to the fiscal risks connected with changes in the macroeconomic circle.
9. Assessment of the fiscal risks connected with changes in the macroeconomic circle is carried out by Ministry of Economics:
1) within the current budget period by carrying out quarterly according to Article 52 of the Budget code of Ukraine assessments of conformity of the main forecast macroindicators of economic and social development of Ukraine to the indicators considered in case of approval of the Government budget of Ukraine for the corresponding budget period;
2) on planned and following for planned two budget periods during project development of the Forecast of economic and social development of Ukraine on following and the next two years - by determination and calculation of forecasting of scenarios: basic which is recommended to be budgeted, and alternative scenarios of development of the country; and also the forecast of risks which did not enter one of developed scenarios and are subdivided on such on which can or quantitative consequences cannot be determined.
In case of need additional assessment of the fiscal risks connected with changes in the macroeconomic circle taking into account risks which arose after approval by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine of the Forecast of economic and social development of Ukraine and were not provided by any of scenarios of forecasting or the list of risks of the forecast and by which quantitative consequences can be determined can be carried out.
10. The Ministry of Economics in the terms established by the legislation informs the Ministry of Finance on results of the carried-out work according to subitems 1 and 2 of Item 9 of this Technique.
The Ministry of Economics till August 1 of the year preceding planning budget period informs the Ministry of Finance according to appendix on results of risks assessment of the forecast which is carried out in case of need after approval by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine of the Forecast of economic and social development of Ukraine.
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