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ORDER OF THE GOVERNMENT OF THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

of May 17, 2018 No. 239

About approval of System of the state forecasting in the Kyrgyz Republic and the Procedure for development of the forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic

(as amended of the Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic of 17.05.2023 No. 265)

For the purpose of enhancement of development of forecasts of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic, according to the Budget code of the Kyrgyz Republic, the Law of the Kyrgyz Republic "About the state forecasting of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic", articles 10 and 17 of the constitutional Law of the Kyrgyz Republic "About the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic" the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic decides:

1. Approve:

- System of the state forecasting in the Kyrgyz Republic (further - System) according to appendix 1;

- Procedure for development of the forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic (further - the Procedure) according to appendix 2.

2. To the ministries, the state committees, administrative departments, plenipotentiaries of the President of the Kyrgyz Republic in areas, local public administrations, the city halls of the city of Bishkek and Osh and other public authorities in case of development of the corresponding forecasts of social and economic development to be guided by the System and Procedure approved by this resolution.

3. Recommend to the scientific and educational organizations and organizations, business entities in whose authorized capital the state share constitutes over 30 percent, in case of development of forecasts of social and economic development to be guided by the System and Procedure approved by this resolution.

4. Recognize invalid:

- the order of the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic "About approval of System of the state forecasting in the Kyrgyz Republic and the Procedure for development of the forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic" of November 11, 2011 No. 711;

- Item 24 appendices to the order of the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic "About modification and amendments in some decisions of the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic" of July 1, 2013 No. 395;

- the order of the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic "About modification of the order of the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic "About approval of System of the state forecasting in the Kyrgyz Republic and the Procedure for development of the forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic" of November 11, 2011 No. 711" of May 27, 2014 No. 282.

5. To impose control of execution of this resolution on management of control of execution of decisions of the President and the Presidential Administration Cabinet of Ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic.

6. This resolution becomes effective after seven days from the date of official publication.

Prime Minister of the Kyrgyz Republic

M. Abylgaziyev

Appendix 1

System of the state forecasting in the Kyrgyz Republic

1. General provisions

1. System of the state forecasting in the Kyrgyz Republic - the set of the interconnected elements consisting of the principles, documents, processes and participants of the state forecasting, providing development of the country on long-term (for 10 years and more), medium-term (from 3 to 5 years) and short-term (till 1 year) the periods.

2. The state forecasting covers the activities of public authorities and other participants of development of the country directed to increase in level of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic, improvement of quality of life of citizens and ensuring economic safety of the country.

2. Principles of System of the state forecasting

3. The system of the state forecasting is based on the following principles:

1) unity and integrity - unity of the legislation in the sphere of the state forecasting, the principles of the organization and functioning of System of the state forecasting, unity of procedure of process of the state forecasting;

2) internal balance - coordination of all documents of System of the state forecasting among themselves on the macroeconomic purposes, tasks and indicators of results;

3) effectiveness and efficiency - the choice of the macroeconomic purposes, tasks and indicators of results shall be objectively rational, be based on the deep analysis of the current situation and need of achievement of the set results with the smallest costs of resources;

4) independence of the choice of ways/methods of the solution of tasks - independence of participants of process of the state forecasting in the choice of ways and methods of goal achievement and the solution of tasks within the established competence;

5) responsibility of participants of process of the state forecasting - ensuring responsibility for low performance of the solution of tasks and results which were not achieved rather target indicators of development of the country within the established competence according to the legislation of the Kyrgyz Republic;

6) transparency (openness) - obligatory publication of documents of System of the state forecasting, except for the provisions containing information relating to questions of economic safety;

7) reliability and realness - the reasonable scenario of achievement of the macroeconomic purposes established by documents of System of the state forecasting including justification of the main indicators of the results used in the course of the state forecasting;

8) continuity, succession and the sequence - three components of success of goal achievement and tasks providing the continuous mechanism of functioning of System of the state forecasting;

9) resource security - determination of sources and the amounts of financing, human, other material and non-material resources in the main directions of the state forecasts of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic for achievement of effective objectives and tasks.

3. Documents of System of the state forecasting

4. Treat documents of System of the state forecasting:

1) the National strategy of development for the Kyrgyz Republic for 5 years and more;

2) state programs of the Kyrgyz Republic for 3 years and more;

3) strategy and programs of social and economic development of the territories for 3 years and more;

4) Joint statement of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic and National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic on the main directions of economic policy the forthcoming year;

5) the Forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic for 3 years and more;

6) the Main directions of fiscal policy of the Kyrgyz Republic for the medium-term period;

7) sectoral/industry programs;

8) strategic documents of social and economic development of the state companies and national companies with participation of the state in the authorized capital;

9) republican budget of the Kyrgyz Republic for the next fiscal year and planning period;

10) local budgets for the next fiscal year and planning period.

4. Process and participants of process of System of the state forecasting

5. Development and approval, realization, monitoring, assessment, adjustment, control of implementation of documents belong to processes of System of the state forecasting.

Development - forming of forecasts of social and economic development of the country with use of the model/scheme of process control of forecasting within the operating Procedure and instruments of macroeconomic forecasting.

Monitoring - collection, systematization, the analysis and generalization of information on the course of implementation of documents of System of the state forecasting.

Assessment - the instrument of determination of extent of achievement, effectiveness and efficiency of implementation of documents of System of the state forecasting.

Control - implementation of the analysis of completeness and timeliness of execution of documents of System of the state forecasting, including by scheduled and unscheduled inspections for the purpose of identification, elimination and non-admission of violations.

6. Participants of processes of System of the state forecasting are public authorities, local government bodies, legal entities with the state participation, representatives of the public, scientific and private organizations, physical persons.

Appendix 2

Approved by the Order of the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic of May 17, 2018, No. 239

Procedure for development of the forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic

1. General provisions

1. This Procedure for development of the forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic (further - the Procedure) determines rules and process of development of forecasts of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic at the republican and local levels of public administration, and also mechanisms of interaction of republican and local executive bodies in the course of development of the forecast.

2. The forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic is developed for the medium-term period at the republican and local levels of public administration and the long-term period, taking into account strategic priorities of development of the Kyrgyz Republic, the state and industry programs, for the purpose of establishment of interrelation of strategic development of the country, parameters of social and economic forecasting and budgetary planning, containing:

1) at the republican level of public administration - macroeconomic target parameters, the forecast of social parameters, tendencies, priorities and indicators of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic with breakdown by years;

2) at the local level of public administration - the industry/sectoral purposes of development of regions and areas, tendencies, priorities and indicators of social and economic development of regions and areas with breakdown by years;

3) at the industry level - goal setting and the main directions of development of industries/sectors proceeding from macroeconomic tasks of development of the country/region, tendency, regularity, indicators of development of industries/sectors with breakdown by years.

3. Development of long-term forecasts is performed according to the order of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic in which the procedure and terms of submission of the draft document on the long-term forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic are specified. Long-term forecasts are used in case of development of concepts, strategies of development for the Kyrgyz Republic.

4. The forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic at the republican level of public administration is developed by authorized state body on economic forecasting and affirms the Cabinet of Ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic.

5. The forecast of social and economic development at the local level of public administration is developed by plenipotentiaries of the President of the Kyrgyz Republic in areas, local public administrations, the city halls of the cities of Bishkek and Osh with assistance of the industry ministries, the state committees, administrative departments and authorized state body of economic forecasting and affirms the Cabinet of Ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic.

6. The forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic is basis for development republican and local budgets for the medium-term period.

7. The short-term forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic is developed by authorized state body on economic forecasting and used for tracking of accomplishment of target indicators.

Development of the short-term forecast is performed within year taking into account monthly results of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic, and also proceeding from the complex analysis of the developed social and economic situation, external conditions and change of the pledged factors/risks.

2. Structure of the forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic

8. The forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic developed at the republican level of public administration consists of the following Sections:

1) current tendencies of social and economic development;

2) prerequisites and conditions of social and economic development;

3) the main directions of macroeconomic policy, including budget and tax, monetary policy, the reflecting actions of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic for preserving macroeconomic stability;

4) main directions of the external economic policy;

5) prospects of development of investment policy;

6) tendencies and prospects of development of real production sector, including industry, agricultural industry, construction and service industry;

7) main directions of social policy;

8) policy of development of regions of the Kyrgyz Republic;

9) innovative policy;

10) policy in the field of development of entrepreneurship;

11) Ceased to be valid according to the Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic of 17.05.2023 No. 265

12) the forecast of the main indicators of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic for forms according to appendices 2-16 to this Procedure.

9. The list of indicators of the forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic is determined according to appendices with forms of the predicted indicators to this Procedure.

10. Further forms and the list of the indicators necessary for calculation of forecast parameters of social and economic development of the republic, regions and areas, will be determined depending on strategic objectives and priorities according to strategic and program documents and to affirm the order of authorized state body on economic forecasting.

11. The forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic developed at the local level of public administration consists of the following main Sections:

1) current tendencies of economic development;

2) prerequisites and conditions of development of economy;

3) tendencies and prospects of development of real production sector, including industry, agricultural industry, construction and service industry;

4) main directions of development of investing activities;

5) main directions of social development of regions;

6) the forecast of the main indicators of social and economic development in breakdown by years in forms according to appendices 17-25 to this Procedure.

12. The forecast of economic and social parameters has intermediate character and can be reviewed during the predicted period taking into account assessment of the current results, identification of new internal and external factors / is risky.

3. Procedure for development of the forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic at the republican and local levels of public administration

13. Development of the forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic is performed according to appendix 1 to this Procedure.

14. The procedure for development of the forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic is performed on the below-stated sequence.

From January 10 to January 25 the year preceding the predicted year the industry ministries, the state committee, administrative departments at the republican level of public administration and plenipotentiaries of the President of the Kyrgyz Republic in areas, the city hall of the cities of Bishkek and Osh at the local level of public administration represent to authorized state body on economic forecasting three scripts of the forecast of indicators and the offer for Sections of the forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic for the medium-term period (further - the Forecast) according to the structure of Sections specified in this Procedure and also forms and the list of indicators of the Forecast according to appendices 2-25 to this Procedure.

From January 26 to February 5 the year preceding the predicted year, the authorized state body on economic forecasting on the basis of the forecast indicators and offers provided by the industry ministries, the state committee and administrative departments at the republican level, plenipotentiaries of the President of the Kyrgyz Republic in areas, the city halls of the cities of Bishkek and Osh at the local level of public administration creates the draft of the Forecast, including forecasts of areas, according to forms and the list of indicators according to appendices 2-25 to this Procedure.

From February 6 to February 12 the year preceding the predicted year, authorized state body on economic forecasting together with authorized state body on forecasting and budget implementation National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic, National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic, Social fund of the Kyrgyz Republic (the technical group on financial programming created by the order of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic of March 28, 2022 No. 151-r) develop scenario macroeconomic conditions for the subsequent choice from three macroeconomic scenarios of one scenario with forming on their basis of target parameters of the Forecast.

From February 13 to February 20 the year preceding the predicted year, the authorized state body on economic forecasting generalizes macroeconomic scenarios for the medium-term period and submits for consideration of meeting of Coordination council on macroeconomic and investment policy under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic. At meeting of Coordination council on macroeconomic and investment policy under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic one scenario is considered and gets out of three macroeconomic scenarios with the corresponding macroeconomic parameters for the medium-term period for forming of the Main directions of fiscal policy for the medium-term period and the draft of the republican budget of the Kyrgyz Republic for the next fiscal year and planning period.

From February 21 to February 28 the year preceding the predicted year, authorized state body on economic forecasting together with the industry ministries, the state committee, administrative departments and plenipotentiaries of the President of the Kyrgyz Republic in areas taking into account the approved target parameters of the chosen macroeconomic scenario, develop drafts of sectoral/industry forecasts and forecasts of social and economic development at the local level of public administration for the medium-term period.

Forecasts of social and economic development at the local level of public administration are developed by plenipotentiaries of the President of the Kyrgyz Republic in areas, the city halls of the cities of Bishkek and Osh on the basis of the forecasts of social and economic development provided by local public administrations. At the same time indicators of development of industries will be approved with the relevant industry ministries, the state committee, administrative departments of formats according to the list of the indicators specified in appendices 2-25 to this Procedure.

During the period from March 1 to March 5 the year preceding the predicted year, authorized state body on economic forecasting proceeding from the sectoral/industry forecasts of social and economic development and forecasts of social and economic development at the local level of public administration developed taking into account the macroeconomic purposes of the chosen scenario approved by Coordination council on macroeconomic and investment policy under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic for the predicted medium-term period creates the draft of the Forecast and the description of the medium-term purposes of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic at the republican level.

During the period from March 6 to March 15 the year preceding the predicted year the draft of the resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic "About the forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic for the medium-term period" undergoes reconciliation procedure with the relevant state bodies and goes for approval in the Cabinet of Ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic.

The forecast affirms no later than March 31 of the year preceding the predicted year and goes to authorized state body on forecasting and budget implementation for calculation of budget receipts for the medium-term period.

The approved Forecast is posted on the official site of authorized state body on economic forecasting.

From July 1 to September 15 the year preceding the predicted year, the authorized state body on economic forecasting takes part in forming by authorized state body on forecasting and budget implementation of the draft of the republican budget of the Kyrgyz Republic for the next fiscal year and planning period concerning reasons for indicators of the Forecast.

From September 15 to October 1 the year preceding the predicted year, the authorized state body on economic forecasting takes part in consideration and approval of the budget parameters for the next fiscal year and planning period at the level of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic concerning reasons for indicators of the Forecast.

From October 1 to December 1 the year preceding the predicted year, the authorized state body on economic forecasting takes part in consideration and approval of the budget parameters for the next fiscal year and planning period at the level of Jogorku Kenesh of the Kyrgyz Republic concerning reasons for indicators of the Forecast.

4. Methodological and information support of development of the forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic

15. The methodological management and coordination of work of state bodies of the power and authorized representatives of the President of the Kyrgyz Republic in areas, local public administrations, the city halls of the cities of Bishkek and Osh in case of development of the forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic is performed by authorized state body on economic forecasting.

16. The authorized state body on economic forecasting develops methodological recommendations about development of the forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic at the republican and local levels of public administration.

17. Materials for development of the forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic are represented by participants of system of forecasting of the Kyrgyz Republic on paper and electronic carriers according to the methodical recommendations approved by authorized state body on economic forecasting.

5. Monitoring of results of implementation of the forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic

18. Monitoring of results of implementation of forecasts of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic performs authorized state body on economic forecasting on the basis of the analysis of the current economic and social situation of the Kyrgyz Republic on quarterly basis.

19. Monitoring of results of implementation of forecasts of social and economic development of areas, areas, cities of Bishkek and Osh is performed by local executive bodies on the basis of the analysis of the current economic and social situation of regions on monthly basis, with representation of the relevant information in authorized state body on economic forecasting.

20. On the basis of monitoring of results of implementation of social and economic forecasts at the republican and local levels of public administration, as required, review of the forecast indicators which are reasons for entering of corresponding changes into the republican budget of the Kyrgyz Republic, and also the existing strategy/development programs at the republican and local levels of public administration is made.

Appendix 1

to the Procedure for development of the forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic

Scheme of public administration of development of social and economic forecasts (management model forecasting process)

 265-23 РИС.1

Appendix 2

to the Procedure for development of the forecast of social and economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic

The main socio-economic indexes of development of the Kyrgyz Republic on __________ years

The name "GDP Without Gold, One Million Som", "Rate of Actual Growth, in % to Previous Year", "Deflator, in % to previous year

_____ year

_____ year

_____ year

_____ year

_____ year

predv. fact

ozhid.

forecast

forecast

forecast

I. Production of GDP:

 

 

 

 

 

Nominal GDP, one million som

 

 

 

 

 

Rate of actual growth, in % to previous year

 

 

 

 

 

Deflator, in % to previous year

 

 

 

 

 

Value added

 

 

 

 

 

Industry, one million som

 

 

 

 

 

Rate of actual growth, in % to previous year

 

 

 

 

 

Agricultural industry, forestry and fishery, one million som

 

 

 

 

 

Rate of actual growth, in % to previous year

 

 

 

 

 

Construction, one million som

 

 

 

 

 

Rate of actual growth, in % to previous year

 

 

 

 

 

Service industry, one million som

 

 

 

 

 

Rate of actual growth, in % to previous year

 

 

 

 

 

Net taxes on products and import, one million som

 

 

 

 

 

Reference:

 

 

 

 

 

GDP without the companies for mining Kumtor, one million som

 

 

 

 

 

Rate of actual growth, in % to previous year

 

 

 

 

 

Deflator, in % to previous year

 

 

 

 

 

II. Use of GDP:

 

 

 

 

 

Final consumption, one million som

 

 

 

 

 

Including:

 

 

 

 

 

private consumption, one million som

 

 

 

 

 

rate of actual growth, in % to previous year

 

 

 

 

 

price index, in % to previous year

 

 

 

 

 

state consumption, one million som

 

 

 

 

 

rate of actual growth, in % to previous year

 

 

 

 

 

price index, in % to previous year

 

 

 

 

 

Gross investments, one million som

 

 

 

 

 

Rate of actual growth, in % to previous year

 

 

 

 

 

Price index, in % to previous year

 

 

 

 

 

Including:

 

 

 

 

 

state investments, one million som

 

 

 

 

 

from them: Program of the state investments (PGI external), one million som

 

 

 

 

 

private investments, one million som

 

 

 

 

 

Net commodity export and services, one million som

 

 

 

 

 

Including:

 

 

 

 

 

commodity export and services, one million som

 

 

 

 

 

rate of actual growth, in % to previous year

 

 

 

 

 

price index, in % to previous year

 

 

 

 

 

commodity import and services, one million som

 

 

 

 

 

rate of actual growth, in % to previous year

 

 

 

 

 

price index, in % to previous year

 

 

 

 

 

III. Social indicators

 

 

 

 

 

GDP per capita, one thousand som

 

 

 

 

 

GDP per capita, US dollar

 

 

 

 

 

Poverty level, in %

 

 

 

 

 

Cash incomes of the population, one million som

 

 

 

 

 

Rate of actual growth, in % to previous year

 

 

 

 

 

Subsistence minimum, som a month

 

 

 

 

 

Subsistence minimum for adult population of working-age, som a month

 

 

 

 

 

Subsistence minimum for adult population of retirement age, som a month

 

 

 

 

 

Annual average number of the cash population, one thousand people

 

 

 

 

 

Average monthly salary, som

 

 

 

 

 

Rate of actual growth, in % to previous year

 

 

 

 

 

In % to subsistence minimum for able-bodied population

 

 

 

 

 

Average monthly size of pensions, som

 

 

 

 

 

Rate of actual growth, in % to previous year

 

 

 

 

 

In % to subsistence minimum of the pensioner

 

 

 

 

 

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

 

 

 

 

 

By December of previous year, in %

 

 

 

 

 

To previous year, in %

 

 

 

 

 

IV. Manpower

 

 

 

 

 

Number of economically active population, one thousand persons.

 

 

 

 

 

Growth rate, in %

 

 

 

 

 

Number of occupied population, one thousand persons.

 

 

 

 

 

Growth rate, in %

 

 

 

 

 

Including by sectors:

 

 

 

 

 

Industry, one thousand persons.

 

 

 

 

 

Agricultural industry, one thousand persons.

 

 

 

 

 

Construction, one thousand persons.

 

 

 

 

 

Services, one thousand persons.

 

 

 

 

 

Number of the unemployed (general), one thousand persons.

 

 

 

 

 

Level of general unemployment, in %

 

 

 

 

 

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