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of January 24, 2007 No. 462

About the Forecast of the main directions Tajikistan for 2007

The Majlisi namoyandagon of Majlisi Oli of the Republic of Tajikistan decides:

1. Approve "The forecast of the main directions of monetary policy of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2007".

2. Take into consideration information of the chairman of National Bank of Tajikistan Alimardonov M. M. on realization of monetary policy of the Republic of Tajikistan in 2006.

3. To the government of the Republic of Tajikistan and National Bank of Tajikistan in case of realization of economic policy of the state, including tax and budget and monetary policy to proceed from parameters of the Forecast of the main directions of monetary policy of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2007.


Chairman of Majlisi namoyandagon

Majlisi Oli of the Republic of Tajikistan S. Hayrulloyev

The forecast of the main directions of monetary policy of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2007

I. Macroeconomic provision in 2006

1. Gross Internal Product (GIP) and other indicators. The considered period is characterized by the moderate growth of economy, improvement of the main indicators of bank system and the cash financial market of the country. In particular, were observed relative increase in production, the stable rate of inflation and steady interest rates of the money market what promoted growth of economy. Growth of investment into fixed assets for January-October, 2006, in comparison with the same period of previous year, constituted percent 64,1.

GDP for the period January-October of accounting year increased by percent 7,1, release of industrial output increased on 5,8 of percent, agricultural products on percent 5,9, communication, transport on percent 6,3, construction for 4.5 percent, the average salary on 16,3 of percent and cash incomes of the population on percent 25,3. Nominal GDP for this period constituted 7496, 9 million somoni.

2. Inflation. The rate of inflation for the period January - October was rather high and concerning the predicted 7 percent made percent 9,8. The structure of inflation consists of increase in prices for food products of 10,1 of percent, for nonfoods of 4,2 of percent and for the paid services 19,0 of percent.

Growth of inflation in the accounting period is connected with imbalance of the consumer market in connection with reducing the offer of separate types of agricultural products (such as potato, onions, carrots) which developed with higher growth rate of purchasing power of the population concerning increase in production and lack of factors of support of stability of the prices in the market and regulations of agricultural import.

For the purpose of preserving the translations in the country necessary condition is extension of the list and growth in volumes of agricultural products, allowing to reduce dependence of the market on import and providing price stability.

In particular, the share of these agricultural products in inflation constituted more than 60 percent. In the majority of the countries of the region increase in prices happened also on agricultural products. It is also necessary to note the following factors:

- great attention on production of one type of agricultural products, namely cotton that in certain measure limits production of other agricultural products;

- to the companies which are engaged in the sphere of production and conversion of food products of prime necessity such as flour, bread, eggs, milk, oil and other, it is reasonable to give preferential opportunities in electricity use;

- rather high growth of the world prices for raw materials, concerning the predicted indicators, including on oil products and the metal resulting generally from devaluation of US dollar;

- activization of the free regional trade stimulating goods turnover between the countries and promoting rapprochement of the prices to regional conditions;

- rather high growth of the average salary resulting from decline in unemployment on an equal basis with economic recovery and also in case of the growing demand for highly skilled labor powers,

- growth of price level in the countries where the goods (inflation import) which are traditionally imported to our country are made.

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